Thursday, March 09, 2006

The Future of Iran


Greetings everyone!

As I'm sure you've all been following the international dialogue surrounding Iran's nuclear development program, I've received some suggestions to post an article reflecting the current situation.

As the world is aware, Iran has been working towards developing nuclear weapons. After dismissing several recommendations from surrounding Muslim nations, as well as the pleas of the world community to abandon such plans, the future is unknown for the situation set to transpire in the Middle East. The IAEA has held failed talks with the Islamic Republic, showcasing an ongoing problem in Iran's unwillingness to negotiate.

The Quartet Committee grouping the United States, the European Union, the United Nations and Russia, has been the key Mideast peace brokers. However, even alternative choices and potential solutions by this group have fallen on deaf ears, as Iran pledges to move forward with its plan to continue enriching uranium, intending to focus on creating nuclear materials without IAEA supervision and approval.

As the situation worsens, one can't help but feel a sense of anxiety toward the idea of a future war in Persia. As democratic citizens, we believe constructive dialogue is the key to a safer world, and war must only be a tool used when all other means have failed. But how can one who has truly studied the current situation in its entirety still hold any 'practial' hope that this situation can be side-stepped and an agreement reached?

What we have is perhaps a very ignorant President in Iran, one who refuses to represent the beliefs held by the majority of his Republic, but rather, pursues his own personal interests while defying world regulations. Although one could argue that George Bush might be characterized the same way, I should point out that prior to the the invasion of Iraq, the American President did in fact hold the support of the majority of US citizens. His approval rating has since dropped significantly along with support for the War in Iraq, which is expected due to war being a process that brings with it uncertainty, instability, and loss of support over time. In order to accept the current promise America has accepted, we must realize that Iraq was meant as just a stepping stone towards converting most Islamic states into democratic entities. The task the US faces will not be completed by November of 2008 when Bush leaves office, nor by 2010. It will be decades before foreign nations leave the Middle East, so we might as well accept it for what it is.

On the opposite side of the table, sitting across from Iran is a plethora of nations to whom war is no new matter. They have witnessed first-hand the consequences of waiting too long to confront the matter of terrorism, as well as the experience of entering a country with their eyes closed. Because they have fallen victim to both situations, one can assume they are much less tolerant of being both defied and humiliated. This leads me to believe that when the world's attention is turned to Iran, the US will not be playing games. They will garner international support and proceed into Persia under the presumption that letting a situation like this linger will carry with it serious consequences to future tranquility.

It is a known fact that cancer can be best eliminated when detected in its early stages. And so, like a doctor taking his place above an ailing patient, I believe we will see an American scalpel held by the world community carefully examine its infected Iranian counterpart, and then move in for what it hopes will be a solution to the infirmity. Do I support the Iranian people? Yes. Do I support their government? No. Will peace eventually come to its people? It will take a committed set of nations, the united effort of many, and most importantly the courage of a people who wont stand idly by when the prospect of democracy in the Middle East comes knocking.

- Josh Bower

6 Comments:

Blogger Jeremy Yao said...

Hey man.. thanks for the encouragement.. I've finally found somewhere where i can rant about the muslims and IRAN.. HAHA..

Anyway keep up with the good stuff on your blog.

9:56 a.m.  
Blogger Jeremy Yao said...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yjzGLcosJUc&eurl=http%3A%2F%2Fantimuslims%2Eblogspot%2Ecom%2F


Robert Spencer on islam(Religion of violence or peace?)


Man.. i wanna buy his book.

12:30 p.m.  
Blogger Josh said...

Hey Dave,

Unlike Iraq, the US will most likely have both UN and global support when entering Iran. As stated in my article, they've learned many lessons about jumping the gun, and I believe this time around, an effort will be put forth to make sure the job is done with support and precision. Don't forget that Iran has not threatened just the US, but various other countries in the process. Information since the 2003 Iraqi invasion shows that funds have been allocated by Persia towards funding and supplying militants with money and weapons, a further reason to shut down this government.

What do we know for sure: Israel will play a major role in this war, due to its survival as a nation being questioned should Iran develop nuclear weapons. Canada has already signed on to triple its presence in Afghanistan, and I'm assuming will contribute to a future war effort in Iran. By sending more forces to Iraq, this allows the US to relocate more of its military one country to the East. Britain, France, and Germany have all said they will play a part in the conflict - and if you study history then you'll know this is a RARE occurence for both Germany and France to subscribe to, with both renouncing violence, uniting to form the Economic Steel and Coal Community (ECSC), and taking various other measures to avoid entering conflict since World War 2. From what I've read, it seems as though China and Japan are preparred to step up in the fight, as well as Australia which has voiced its interest in helping the Allied forces. Russia is leaning towards remaining somewhat neutral, supporting an Iran invasion only by words and not by use of their armed forces.

Since the prospect of Iranian nuclear ambition has been brought to the attention of the world, countries are less skeptical about joining the war effort, as the information and dialogue being produced leads them to believe this unstable region requires attention.

-Josh

2:45 p.m.  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think the way we are seeing the handling of this issue is proof enough that this war wont happen unless its absolutely necessary. I feel secure knowing that whatever decision our leaders arrive at, it will be due to considering alternatives and good reason

-Josh

7:14 p.m.  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm not sure where you've gotten information about any sort of international coalition (like in Desert Storm or Korea) against Iran, but they are false. The Russian Federation has already stated it will veto an attempt to impose economis sanctions against Iran in the UN Security Council (which essentially kills the possibility of any UN backed war in Iran). The PRC has never been big to intervene in international affairs unless it is in its interests and I can't see them contributing anything to war with Iran. You also can't forget that the PRC has been propping the DPRK for the last 60 years, along with Myanmar. Iran just won't concern them. Germany will also have way too many political problems if it attempts to go to war and France has its own internal dissent to worry about as well. There will be no multi-national coalition to fight Iran, IMHO, and there it will most likely successfully become a nuclear power.

8:34 p.m.  
Blogger Josh said...

Anonymous,

I absolutely disagree with you, Iran will by no means become a nuclear power, especially because several Arab countries have contacted Iran to alert the government of their opposition to such a plan. Most of the Arab world has gone on record saying they want a "nuclear-free" Middle East.

As well, with a government policy directed towards the goal of destroying Israel, there is no possible way Iran's attempt to build WMD's will go uncontested. The US stated on Monday that they will use military force if necessary to protect against a country preparing to bring harm to their strong ally, Israel.

When you speak about the US not possessing enough provisions to stage another war, I can tell you this - a war against Iran wont involve small scale cavalry units fighting on the ground and seeking out militants, but will rather be an Air Force campaign that will see fighter jets bombing each nuclear facility known to be enriching uranium. Don't underestimate US determination to prevent WMD's from falling into the hands of mentally incompetent leaders.

It's difficult to say what will happen in the future regarding the UN. Russia initially backed sanctions against Iran, and now they're saying they don't. China is basically just following Russia's lead. When an ultimate decision is made, it'll be interesting to see who sits on which side of the table.


-Josh

2:52 a.m.  

Post a Comment

<< Home